Will Morecambe FC vs. Hereford FC end in a draw?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 75¢ · $736 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$735.84
$15.24
73¢ → 74.5¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 72¢ | $268.06 | $277.37 | +$9.31 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 73.9¢ | $234.66 | $236.44 | +$1.77 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 73¢ | $121.67 | $124.17 | +$2.5 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $63.91 | $64.34 | +$0.43 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $21.6 | $22.35 | +$0.75 | 49% 231-239 (470) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $7.35 | $7.45 | +$0.1 | 31% 170-383 (553) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $3.73 | +$0.38 | — |
Invested
$268.06
Value
$277.37
PnL
+$9.31
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$234.66
Value
$236.44
PnL
+$1.77
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Invested
$121.67
Value
$124.17
PnL
+$2.5
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$63.91
Value
$64.34
PnL
+$0.43
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$21.6
Value
$22.35
PnL
+$0.75
Record
49%
231-239 (470)
Invested
$7.35
Value
$7.45
PnL
+$0.1
Record
31%
170-383 (553)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.73
PnL
+$0.38
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.