Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Hednesford Town vs. Morecambe FC: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 50¢ · $777 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$776.53
-$7.87
47.6¢ → 49.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 47.6¢ | $422.38 | $439.29 | +$16.9 | 50% 21534-21823 (43357) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 54.2¢ | $138.58 | $127.81 | -$10.78 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 54¢ | $134 | $125.32 | -$8.69 | 50% 28899-28703 (57602) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 53.7¢ | $80.5 | $75.75 | -$4.75 | 58% 47475-34259 (81734) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $8.56 | $8.37 | -$0.56 | 53% 2691-2371 (5062) |
Invested
$422.38
Value
$439.29
PnL
+$16.9
Record
50%
21534-21823 (43357)
Invested
$138.58
Value
$127.81
PnL
-$10.78
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$134
Value
$125.32
PnL
-$8.69
Record
50%
28899-28703 (57602)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$80.5
Value
$75.75
PnL
-$4.75
Record
58%
47475-34259 (81734)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$8.56
Value
$8.37
PnL
-$0.56
Record
53%
2691-2371 (5062)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.