Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Darlington FC 0 - 0 Oxford City?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 4.1¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 10

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$84.73

Combined PnL

$0.98

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$60.51

Total Shares63

Combined PnL+$0

Yes4 traders

Total Value$24.22

Total Shares654

Combined PnL+$0.98

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$60.51	$60.51	+$0	47% 147-167 (314)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$15.07	$15.93	+$0.86	43% 78-102 (180)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$4.18	$4.29	+$0.12	50% 1390-1407 (2797)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$3.7	$3.7	+$0	24% 204-649 (853)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$0.29	$0.3	+$0.01	30% 160-379 (539)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$60.51

Value

$60.51

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

147-167 (314)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.07

Value

$15.93

PnL

+$0.86

Record

43%

78-102 (180)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.18

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

1390-1407 (2797)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

204-649 (853)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.01

Record

30%

160-379 (539)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.3%

4.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1771.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

1872.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.