Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
1
Yes 100%
$280.47
$239.35
Research grade
AvoidYes at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $41.12 | $280.47 | +$239.35 | 36% 16080-28084 (44164) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.