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2 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 99¢ · $394 held · ends Dec 31

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$394.06

Combined PnL

-$43.99

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 98.7¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 18 top traders (11%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$174.3

Total Shares178

Combined PnL-$0.58

Yes16 traders

Total Value$219.76

Total Shares13,319

Combined PnL-$43.41

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

6% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 94% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.4¢	$115.87	$115.29	-$0.58	—
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$101.09	$79.78	-$21.31	—
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$59.01	$59.01	+$0	—
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$39.46	$31.9	-$7.55	—
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$32.7	$25.82	-$6.87	—
ImJustKenCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$31.73	$25.66	-$6.08	—
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$9.98	$15.07	+$5.1	—
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$17.58	$14.62	-$2.96	—
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$13.06	$10.56	-$2.5	—
CU curieCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$3.18	$4.6	+$1.42	—
BU buoysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$6.19	$4.52	-$1.67	—
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.86	$2.31	-$0.55	—
PL pleaseletmealoneCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.73	$1.4	-$0.33	—
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.27	$1.03	-$0.24	—
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.03	$0.96	-$0.08	—
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.78	$0.61	-$0.16	—
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.33	$0.58	+$0.25	—
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.19	$0.33	+$0.14	—

cigarettes

Invested

$115.87

Value

$115.29

PnL

-$0.58

Record

—

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$101.09

Value

$79.78

PnL

-$21.31

Record

—

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$59.01

Value

$59.01

PnL

+$0

Record

—

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.46

Value

$31.9

PnL

-$7.55

Record

—

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.7

Value

$25.82

PnL

-$6.87

Record

—

ImJustKenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.73

Value

$25.66

PnL

-$6.08

Record

—

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.98

Value

$15.07

PnL

+$5.1

Record

—

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.58

Value

$14.62

PnL

-$2.96

Record

—

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.06

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$2.5

Record

—

curieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.18

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$1.42

Record

—

buoysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.19

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$1.67

Record

—

0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$0.55

Record

—

pleaseletmealoneCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.33

Record

—

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.24

Record

—

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.08

Record

—

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$0.16

Record

—

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.58

PnL

+$0.25

Record

—

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$0.14

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 18 top traders (11%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

6% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 94% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.