Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 6.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 48¢ · $979 held · ends Nov 11

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$979.08

Combined PnL

-$26.69

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$908.23

Total Shares1,996

Combined PnL-$29.94

Under4 traders

Total Value$70.85

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$3.25

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO royalestakeCTR	Overavg 47¢	$938.17	$908.23	-$29.94	1% 2-178 (180)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 52¢	$36.4	$38.15	+$1.75	50% 1375-1392 (2767)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 52¢	$26	$27.25	+$1.25	54% 93-78 (171)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.73	+$0.13	48% 695-751 (1446)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.73	+$0.13	22% 133-482 (615)

royalestakeCTR

Over

Invested

$938.17

Value

$908.23

PnL

-$29.94

Record

2-178 (180)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$36.4

Value

$38.15

PnL

+$1.75

Record

50%

1375-1392 (2767)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$26

Value

$27.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

93-78 (171)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

695-751 (1446)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.13

Record

22%

133-482 (615)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.