Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Capitals vs. Devils: O/U 6.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 48¢ · $583 held · ended Nov 13

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$583.16

Combined PnL

$50.27

Smart Money Entry

38.1¢ → 47.5¢

+25% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$428.11

Total Shares949

Combined PnL+$66.88

Over6 traders

Total Value$155.05

Total Shares258

Combined PnL-$16.61

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 37¢	$224.98	$288.5	+$63.53	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 40¢	$114.16	$114.16	+$0	44% 93-116 (209)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 64.8¢	$118.44	$72.93	-$1.51	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 73¢	$40.15	$29.43	-$10.72	42% 331-451 (782)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 62.5¢	$21.35	$20.57	-$0.78	36% 577-1014 (1591)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 39.1¢	$15.7	$19.05	+$3.35	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 65¢	$12.9	$11.91	-$0.99	48% 703-766 (1469)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 67.1¢	$15	$11.73	-$3.27	23% 62-205 (267)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 55.3¢	$7.82	$8.49	+$0.66	44% 496-624 (1120)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$3.2	$3.2	+$0	48% 391-432 (823)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$3.2	$3.2	+$0	36% 320-570 (890)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$224.98

Value

$288.5

PnL

+$63.53

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$114.16

Value

$114.16

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

93-116 (209)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$118.44

Value

$72.93

PnL

-$1.51

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$40.15

Value

$29.43

PnL

-$10.72

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$21.35

Value

$20.57

PnL

-$0.78

Record

36%

577-1014 (1591)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.7

Value

$19.05

PnL

+$3.35

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$12.9

Value

$11.91

PnL

-$0.99

Record

48%

703-766 (1469)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$15

Value

$11.73

PnL

-$3.27

Record

23%

62-205 (267)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$7.82

Value

$8.49

PnL

+$0.66

Record

44%

496-624 (1120)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

391-432 (823)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

320-570 (890)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.