Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (70%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Capitals vs. Devils: O/U 5.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 31¢ · $163 held · ended Nov 13

Over70¢Under30¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$163.42

Combined PnL

-$80.54

Smart Money Entry

40.2¢ → 30.5¢

-24% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$128.69

Total Shares518

Combined PnL-$79.3

Over4 traders

Total Value$34.73

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$1.24

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 42¢	$113.49	$64.85	-$48.64	56% 324-253 (577)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$64.44	$35.97	-$28.47	57% 3461-2635 (6096)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$18.11	$20.48	+$2.37	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 79.1¢	$16	$14.06	-$1.94	23% 62-205 (267)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 71¢	$11.32	$12.12	+$0.8	36% 577-1014 (1591)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 84¢	$5.25	$4.75	-$0.5	48% 703-766 (1469)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 37.8¢	$7.01	$4.45	-$2.55	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.8	+$0.4	44% 496-624 (1120)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$3.81	$2.18	-$1.63	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$1.13	$0.75	-$0.37	51% 2128-2072 (4200)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$113.49

Value

$64.85

PnL

-$48.64

Record

56%

324-253 (577)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$64.44

Value

$35.97

PnL

-$28.47

Record

57%

3461-2635 (6096)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.11

Value

$20.48

PnL

+$2.37

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$16

Value

$14.06

PnL

-$1.94

Record

23%

62-205 (267)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$11.32

Value

$12.12

PnL

+$0.8

Record

36%

577-1014 (1591)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$5.25

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.5

Record

48%

703-766 (1469)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.01

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$2.55

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.4

Record

44%

496-624 (1120)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.81

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$1.63

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.13

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.37

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.