Spread: Capitals (-2.5)
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Devils (78%) · Devils at 95¢ · $201 held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Devils
9
Devils 78%
$200.72
$6.79
87.4¢ → 94.5¢
+8% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralDevils at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888<$100 | Devilsavg 86¢ | $76.33 | $78.1 | +$1.78 | 56% 324-253 (577) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Devilsavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $47 | +$2.5 | 49% 1103-1157 (2260) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Devilsavg 89¢ | $35.59 | $37.59 | +$2 | 83% 468-98 (566) |
 poshposh<$100 | Devilsavg 88¢ | $15.71 | $16.78 | +$1.07 | 48% 703-766 (1469) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Devilsavg 86¢ | $8.82 | $9.02 | +$0.21 | 53% 1163-1023 (2186) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Devilsavg 87¢ | $5.79 | $6.26 | +$0.47 | 36% 577-1014 (1591) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Devilsavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $4.7 | +$0.4 | 44% 496-624 (1120) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Capitalsavg 13.5¢ | $1.87 | $0.76 | -$1.11 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Capitalsavg 11¢ | $1.04 | $0.52 | -$0.52 | 49% 1475-1523 (2998) |
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$76.33
Value
$78.1
PnL
+$1.78
Record
56%
324-253 (577)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$47
PnL
+$2.5
Record
49%
1103-1157 (2260)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$35.59
Value
$37.59
PnL
+$2
Record
83%
468-98 (566)
poshposh<$100Invested
$15.71
Value
$16.78
PnL
+$1.07
Record
48%
703-766 (1469)
Invested
$8.82
Value
$9.02
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
1163-1023 (2186)
Invested
$5.79
Value
$6.26
PnL
+$0.47
Record
36%
577-1014 (1591)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$0.4
Record
44%
496-624 (1120)
Invested
$1.87
Value
$0.76
PnL
-$1.11
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$0.52
Record
49%
1475-1523 (2998)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.