Jets vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$55.77

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 52.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,780

Combined PnL+$49.98

Over3 traders

Total Value$701.55

Total Shares1,482

Combined PnL+$5.79

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fyrsken	Underavg 55¢	$659.98	$707.98	+$48	49% 276-287 (563)
ComingBackCTR	Overavg 47¢	$679.57	$686.8	+$7.23	61% 3922-2462 (6384)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 53¢	$269.94	$267.37	-$2.56	46% 7970-9410 (17380)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 53¢	$21.2	$23.6	+$2.4	58% 28416-20976 (49392)
HI hi774c<$100	Underavg 52¢	$15.92	$18.06	+$2.14	52% 4713-4425 (9138)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$15.13	$13.78	-$1.34	54% 17115-14333 (31448)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$1.06	$0.97	-$0.09	57% 2154-1595 (3749)

fyrsken

Under

Invested

$659.98

Value

$707.98

PnL

+$48

Record

49%

276-287 (563)

ComingBackCTR

Over

Invested

$679.57

Value

$686.8

PnL

+$7.23

Record

61%

3922-2462 (6384)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$269.94

Value

$267.37

PnL

-$2.56

Record

46%

7970-9410 (17380)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$21.2

Value

$23.6

PnL

+$2.4

Record

58%

28416-20976 (49392)

hi774c<$100

Under

Invested

$15.92

Value

$18.06

PnL

+$2.14

Record

52%

4713-4425 (9138)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.13

Value

$13.78

PnL

-$1.34

Record

54%

17115-14333 (31448)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.06

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.09

Record

57%

2154-1595 (3749)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.