Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Jets vs. Blackhawks: O/U 8.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 49¢ · $894 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$894.24
-$190.45
78.1¢ → 48.5¢
-38% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 79.9¢ | $905.45 | $386.54 | -$251.91 | 48% 3305-3631 (6936) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 83¢ | $217.31 | $206.84 | -$10.47 | 46% 516-615 (1131) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 26.9¢ | $72.58 | $138.77 | +$66.19 | 49% 4087-4288 (8375) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $43.2 | $53.9 | +$10.7 | 50% 2576-2535 (5111) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Underavg 63.5¢ | $63.46 | $48.48 | -$14.99 | 35% 163-305 (468) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 53.5¢ | $52.99 | $32.15 | +$10.18 | 50% 1636-1654 (3290) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $17.82 | $17.38 | -$0.44 | 55% 522-427 (949) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 80¢ | $9.9 | $10.19 | +$0.29 | 53% 1867-1658 (3525) |
Invested
$905.45
Value
$386.54
PnL
-$251.91
Record
48%
3305-3631 (6936)
Invested
$217.31
Value
$206.84
PnL
-$10.47
Record
46%
516-615 (1131)
Invested
$72.58
Value
$138.77
PnL
+$66.19
Record
49%
4087-4288 (8375)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$53.9
PnL
+$10.7
Record
50%
2576-2535 (5111)
Invested
$63.46
Value
$48.48
PnL
-$14.99
Record
35%
163-305 (468)
Invested
$52.99
Value
$32.15
PnL
+$10.18
Record
50%
1636-1654 (3290)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$17.82
Value
$17.38
PnL
-$0.44
Record
55%
522-427 (949)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$10.19
PnL
+$0.29
Record
53%
1867-1658 (3525)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.