Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (95%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Jets vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 5.5¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over95¢Under5¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$130.73

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 5.5¢

-90% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 95%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over95%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,798

Combined PnL+$39.08

Over5 traders

Total Value$345.26

Total Shares407

Combined PnL+$91.66

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$24.59	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 75¢	$131.01	$168.57	+$37.56	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 52.6¢	$66.3	$119.11	+$52.81	47% 540-597 (1137)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 53.3¢	$296.12	$79.28	+$13.19	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 45.2¢	$53.08	$59.26	+$6.18	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 48.8¢	$36.34	$35.25	+$1.4	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 52.5¢	$27.78	$25.65	-$2.12	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 46¢	$18.74	$19.35	+$0.61	47% 312-350 (662)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 75¢	$9.78	$12.58	+$2.8	48% 2212-2378 (4590)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 53.7¢	$17.04	$10.63	-$6.41	54% 286-244 (530)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.5	$2.55	+$0.05	35% 162-305 (467)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$0.89	$0.96	+$0.08	53% 7192-6289 (13481)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,303.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$24.59

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$131.01

Value

$168.57

PnL

+$37.56

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$66.3

Value

$119.11

PnL

+$52.81

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$296.12

Value

$79.28

PnL

+$13.19

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$53.08

Value

$59.26

PnL

+$6.18

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.34

Value

$35.25

PnL

+$1.4

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$27.78

Value

$25.65

PnL

-$2.12

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$18.74

Value

$19.35

PnL

+$0.61

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$9.78

Value

$12.58

PnL

+$2.8

Record

48%

2212-2378 (4590)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.04

Value

$10.63

PnL

-$6.41

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

162-305 (467)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

7192-6289 (13481)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 95%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.