Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Blackhawks, while the market favors Jets (59%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Blackhawks (-2.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Blackhawks (70%) · Blackhawks at 42¢ · $403 held · ended Nov 14

Blackhawks42¢Jets58¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blackhawks

Consensus Traders

Blackhawks 70%

Total Value

$403.13

Combined PnL

$27.37

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 41.5¢

-27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBlackhawks at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blackhawks

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Blackhawks42%

Jets59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blackhawks7 traders

Total Value$320.05

Total Shares519

Combined PnL+$4.81

Jets3 traders

Total Value$83.07

Total Shares211

Combined PnL+$22.56

Blackhawks — 70%Jets — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Blackhawksavg 76.5¢	$127.83	$117.78	-$10.05	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 58.7¢	$62.49	$86.19	+$23.7	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Jetsavg 40¢	$42.21	$63.84	+$21.63	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 36¢	$39.6	$40.7	+$1.1	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 48¢	$47.99	$36.99	-$10.99	35% 162-305 (467)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 60¢	$33.33	$33.89	+$0.56	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
RN1<$100	Jetsavg 16¢	$16	$17	+$1	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 64¢	$3.88	$4.09	+$0.21	46% 309-368 (677)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Jetsavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.23	-$0.07	39% 578-906 (1484)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 12¢	$0.14	$0.42	+$0.28	47% 312-350 (662)

topdogbigboiCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$127.83

Value

$117.78

PnL

-$10.05

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$62.49

Value

$86.19

PnL

+$23.7

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

Flaznorp<$100

Jets

Invested

$42.21

Value

$63.84

PnL

+$21.63

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$39.6

Value

$40.7

PnL

+$1.1

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$47.99

Value

$36.99

PnL

-$10.99

Record

35%

162-305 (467)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$33.33

Value

$33.89

PnL

+$0.56

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

RN1<$100

Jets

Invested

$16

Value

$17

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$3.88

Value

$4.09

PnL

+$0.21

Record

46%

309-368 (677)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Jets

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.07

Record

39%

578-906 (1484)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.42

PnL

+$0.28

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

Research grade

NeutralBlackhawks at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Blackhawks

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blackhawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.