Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Blackhawks, while the market favors Jets (61%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Blackhawks (-1.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Blackhawks (78%) · Blackhawks at 39¢ · $653 held · ended Nov 14

Blackhawks39¢Jets61¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blackhawks

Consensus Traders

Blackhawks 78%

Total Value

$652.7

Combined PnL

-$339.17

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 39¢

-54% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBlackhawks at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blackhawks

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Blackhawks39%

Jets61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blackhawks7 traders

Total Value$598.64

Total Shares1,098

Combined PnL-$337.07

Jets2 traders

Total Value$54.06

Total Shares119

Combined PnL-$2.1

Blackhawks — 78%Jets — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Blackhawksavg 86¢	$580.5	$367.88	-$212.63	35% 163-305 (468)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 86¢	$86	$54.5	-$31.5	58% 3662-2648 (6310)
dips.CTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 86¢	$86	$54.5	-$31.5	47% 1028-1153 (2181)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 79¢	$73.81	$50.92	-$22.89	46% 311-372 (683)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Jetsavg 45.3¢	$44.67	$44.89	+$0.21	38% 1138-1890 (3028)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 86¢	$43	$27.25	-$15.75	45% 707-867 (1574)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 80¢	$40	$27.25	-$12.75	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 88¢	$26.4	$16.35	-$10.05	48% 543-600 (1143)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Jetsavg 57¢	$11.49	$9.17	-$2.32	83% 792-160 (952)

BoomLaLaCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$580.5

Value

$367.88

PnL

-$212.63

Record

35%

163-305 (468)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$86

Value

$54.5

PnL

-$31.5

Record

58%

3662-2648 (6310)

dips.CTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$86

Value

$54.5

PnL

-$31.5

Record

47%

1028-1153 (2181)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$73.81

Value

$50.92

PnL

-$22.89

Record

46%

311-372 (683)

topdogbigboi<$100

Jets

Invested

$44.67

Value

$44.89

PnL

+$0.21

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

smithagentCTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$43

Value

$27.25

PnL

-$15.75

Record

45%

707-867 (1574)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$40

Value

$27.25

PnL

-$12.75

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$26.4

Value

$16.35

PnL

-$10.05

Record

48%

543-600 (1143)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Jets

Invested

$11.49

Value

$9.17

PnL

-$2.32

Record

83%

792-160 (952)

Research grade

NeutralBlackhawks at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Blackhawks

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blackhawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.