Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Utah, while the market favors Flyers (69%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Utah (-1.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (44%) · Utah at 31¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1

Utah31¢Flyers69¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

-$124.63

Smart Money Entry

37¢ → 31¢

-16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Flyers 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Utah31%

Flyers69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah4 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares26,274

Combined PnL-$125.06

Flyers5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,752

Combined PnL+$0.43

Utah — 44%Flyers — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Utahavg 37¢	$9.2K	$9.1K	-$125	50% 130-129 (259)
fyrsken	Flyersavg 62¢	$992	$992	+$0	49% 290-305 (595)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Utahavg 38¢	$477.66	$477.66	+$0	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Utahavg 38¢	$66.87	$66.46	-$0.21	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 38¢	$41.04	$41.04	+$0
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 63¢	$25.83	$25.42	-$0.21
VeryLucky888<$100	Flyersavg 62¢	$56.66	$57.11	+$0.46	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Flyersavg 80¢	$40	$40	+$0	53% 11583-10087 (21670)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Utahavg 37¢	$4.31	$4.25	-$0.06	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
0xheavy888<$100	Flyersavg 62¢	$3.26	$3.24	-$0.03	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Flyersavg 62¢	$3.1	$3.1	+$0	52% 7507-6801 (14308)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Utahavg 20¢	$1.03	$1.03	+$0	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

taylorsversionCTR

Utah

Invested

$9,250

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$125

Record

50%

130-129 (259)

fyrsken

Flyers

Invested

$992

Value

$992

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

290-305 (595)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Utah

Invested

$477.66

Value

$477.66

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Utah

Invested

$66.87

Value

$66.46

PnL

-$0.21

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

Both legs:

Utah$41.0438¢+$0

Flyers$25.8363¢-$0.21

VeryLucky888<$100

Flyers

Invested

$56.66

Value

$57.11

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

BoomLaLa<$100

Flyers

Invested

$40

Value

$40

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

11583-10087 (21670)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$4.31

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.06

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

0xheavy888<$100

Flyers

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

ameisgoat11<$100

Flyers

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Flyers 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.