Utah vs. Flyers
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (67%) · Utah at 60¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Utah
3
Utah 67%
$14.3K
$110.32
60¢ → 60¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUtah at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversion | Utahavg 60¢ | $9.2K | $9.2K | +$76.44 | 50% 130-129 (259) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Utahavg 60¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | +$39.05 | 72% 6827-2619 (9446) |
 fyrskenCTR | Flyersavg 40¢ | $419.96 | $420.04 | -$5.17 | 49% 290-305 (595) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.