Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (84%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 16¢ · $560 held · ended Nov 12

Over84¢Under16¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$560.29

Combined PnL

-$78.25

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 16¢

-69% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 84%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$339.55

Total Shares941

Combined PnL-$144.37

Over5 traders

Total Value$220.74

Total Shares257

Combined PnL+$66.11

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 51.6¢	$315.09	$219.72	-$95.37	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 49¢	$117.06	$177.19	+$64.68	32% 444-952 (1396)
RO roldyCTR	Underavg 52¢	$148.73	$102.96	-$45.76	— 4-5 (9)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 83¢	$16.6	$17.5	+$0.9	39% 233-367 (600)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 52¢	$15.9	$13.58	+$0.38	49% 786-829 (1615)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$10.61	$9.09	-$1.52	31% 438-969 (1407)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 48¢	$13.45	$8.48	-$0.5	55% 729-596 (1325)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$7.28	$5.92	-$1.36	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 67¢	$3.35	$4	+$0.65	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.21	$1.85	-$0.36	31% 441-967 (1408)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$315.09

Value

$219.72

PnL

-$95.37

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$117.06

Value

$177.19

PnL

+$64.68

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

roldyCTR

Under

Invested

$148.73

Value

$102.96

PnL

-$45.76

Record

—

4-5 (9)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$16.6

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$0.9

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$15.9

Value

$13.58

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.61

Value

$9.09

PnL

-$1.52

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$13.45

Value

$8.48

PnL

-$0.5

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.28

Value

$5.92

PnL

-$1.36

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$3.35

Value

PnL

+$0.65

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.21

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.36

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 84%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.7%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$464.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

564.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.