Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (97%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 2.9¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 88%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$971.81

Smart Money Entry

39.5¢ → 2.9¢

-93% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares6,172

Combined PnL-$976.44

Over1 trader

Total Value$32.06

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$4.63

Under — 88%Over — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 40¢	$1.5K	$871.2	-$580.8	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 40¢	$567.71	$340.62	-$227.08	52% 597-541 (1138)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 40¢	$421.51	$229.17	-$148.34	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 73.8¢	$43.25	$32.06	+$4.63	49% 786-829 (1615)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$10.64	$12.31	+$1.66	36% 410-719 (1129)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 39.6¢	$11.83	$7.17	-$4.65	55% 729-596 (1325)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$19.27	$1.76	-$17.51	54% 135-114 (249)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$1.15	$1.44	+$0.29	51% 2141-2070 (4211)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,452

Value

$871.2

PnL

-$580.8

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$567.71

Value

$340.62

PnL

-$227.08

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$421.51

Value

$229.17

PnL

-$148.34

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$43.25

Value

$32.06

PnL

+$4.63

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.64

Value

$12.31

PnL

+$1.66

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.83

Value

$7.17

PnL

-$4.65

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.27

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$17.51

Record

54%

135-114 (249)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.29

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.1%

2.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2315.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

2415.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.