Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Utah, while the market favors Golden Knights (53%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (45%) · Utah at 47¢ · $451 held · ended Nov 12

Golden Knights53¢Utah47¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 45%

Total Value

$450.69

Combined PnL

-$32.81

Smart Money Entry

71.6¢ → 47¢

-34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Golden Knights53%

Utah47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Golden Knights6 traders

Total Value$228.9

Total Shares425

Combined PnL+$65.35

Utah5 traders

Total Value$221.79

Total Shares411

Combined PnL-$98.16

Golden Knights — 55%Utah — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Golden Knightsavg 49¢	$95	$103.72	+$8.72	16% 59-314 (373)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Utahavg 68.8¢	$143.89	$103.28	-$40.62	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Utahavg 76.4¢	$116.91	$79.01	-$37.91	36% 446-789 (1235)
PA Pan9X<$100	Golden Knightsavg 24.9¢	$46.99	$54.21	+$40.72	47% 847-942 (1789)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Golden Knightsavg 50¢	$31.8	$34.66	+$2.86	52% 1960-1815 (3775)
38 38791873984189<$100	Golden Knightsavg 48¢	$19.21	$21.81	+$2.6	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Utahavg 78¢	$31.2	$18.6	-$12.6	82% 336-74 (410)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Utahavg 71¢	$17.75	$11.63	-$6.13	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
nigiri99<$100	Golden Knightsavg 21¢	$4.2	$10	+$5.8	51% 267-256 (523)
RN1CTR<$100	Utahavg 50¢	$10.2	$9.28	-$0.92	57% 4253-3271 (7524)
GH ghorrock<$100	Golden Knightsavg 30.2¢	$6.31	$4.49	+$4.64	54% 789-676 (1465)

ferrariChampions2026

Golden Knights

Invested

$95

Value

$103.72

PnL

+$8.72

Record

16%

59-314 (373)

FlaznorpCTR

Utah

Invested

$143.89

Value

$103.28

PnL

-$40.62

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

topdogbigboiCTR

Utah

Invested

$116.91

Value

$79.01

PnL

-$37.91

Record

36%

446-789 (1235)

Pan9X<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$46.99

Value

$54.21

PnL

+$40.72

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$31.8

Value

$34.66

PnL

+$2.86

Record

52%

1960-1815 (3775)

38791873984189<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$19.21

Value

$21.81

PnL

+$2.6

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$31.2

Value

$18.6

PnL

-$12.6

Record

82%

336-74 (410)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$17.75

Value

$11.63

PnL

-$6.13

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

nigiri99<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$4.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.8

Record

51%

267-256 (523)

RN1CTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$10.2

Value

$9.28

PnL

-$0.92

Record

57%

4253-3271 (7524)

ghorrock<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$6.31

Value

$4.49

PnL

+$4.64

Record

54%

789-676 (1465)

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.