Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Utah, while the market favors Golden Knights (99%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Utah (-1.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (50%) · Utah at 0.9¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Utah
8
Utah 50%
$1.2K
-$442.07
24.9¢ → 0.9¢
-96% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUtah at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Golden Knightsavg 73¢ | $644.59 | $679.91 | +$35.32 | 52% 235-217 (452) |
TA taylorsversionCTR | Utahavg 26.6¢ | $863.63 | $405.16 | -$458.47 | 53% 98-86 (184) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Golden Knightsavg 75.5¢ | $51.85 | $65.2 | +$13.35 | 49% 786-829 (1615) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Golden Knightsavg 74¢ | $30.19 | $31.42 | +$1.22 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Golden Knightsavg 73¢ | $5.19 | $5.48 | +$0.28 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Utahavg 4¢ | $4 | $5 | +$1 | 53% 5912-5294 (11206) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Utahavg 4¢ | $3.87 | $4.83 | +$0.97 | 36% 410-719 (1129) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Utahavg 18.5¢ | $40.09 | $4.34 | -$35.75 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
nigiri99Invested
$644.59
Value
$679.91
PnL
+$35.32
Record
52%
235-217 (452)
Invested
$863.63
Value
$405.16
PnL
-$458.47
Record
53%
98-86 (184)
Invested
$51.85
Value
$65.2
PnL
+$13.35
Record
49%
786-829 (1615)
Invested
$30.19
Value
$31.42
PnL
+$1.22
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$5.19
Value
$5.48
PnL
+$0.28
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$4
Value
$5
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
5912-5294 (11206)
Invested
$3.87
Value
$4.83
PnL
+$0.97
Record
36%
410-719 (1129)
Invested
$40.09
Value
$4.34
PnL
-$35.75
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.