Maple Leafs vs. Canucks
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Maple Leafs (80%) · Maple Leafs at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Maple Leafs
5
Maple Leafs 80%
$2.6K
-$11.61
59¢ → 58.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralMaple Leafs at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Canucksavg 41.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$5.22 | 49% 18987-19398 (38385) |
 fyrsken | Maple Leafsavg 59¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$9 | 49% 276-287 (563) |
38 38791873984189 | Maple Leafsavg 59¢ | $282.78 | $282.78 | +$2.4 | 46% 7970-9410 (17380) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 58¢ | $50.85 | $51.29 | +$0.44 | 53% 11542-10038 (21580) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 59¢ | $26.89 | $26.66 | -$0.23 | 57% 13603-10423 (24026) |
Invested
$1,174.14
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$5.22
Record
49%
18987-19398 (38385)
fyrskenInvested
$1,062
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$9
Record
49%
276-287 (563)
Invested
$282.78
Value
$282.78
PnL
+$2.4
Record
46%
7970-9410 (17380)
Invested
$50.85
Value
$51.29
PnL
+$0.44
Record
53%
11542-10038 (21580)
Invested
$26.89
Value
$26.66
PnL
-$0.23
Record
57%
13603-10423 (24026)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.