Lightning vs. Jets

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Lightning (18%) · Lightning at 59¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8

Lightning59¢Jets41¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lightning

Consensus Traders

Lightning 18%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$54.61

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 58.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLightning at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lightning

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lightning59%

Jets42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lightning2 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,020

Combined PnL+$74.11

Jets9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,413

Combined PnL-$19.51

Lightning — 18%Jets — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Lightning. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrJets 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Lightningavg 57¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$72.61	49% 516-547 (1063)
nigiri99CTR	Jetsavg 42¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$19.72	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Jetsavg 42¢	$270.63	$273.98	+$3.35	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
WE westing.v1CTR	Jetsavg 43.2¢	$52.3	$208.01	-$4.74	50% 61-62 (123)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Jetsavg 41¢	$82	$83	+$1	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lightningavg 57¢	$57	$58.5	+$1.5	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Jetsavg 41¢	$28.38	$28.71	+$0.33	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Jetsavg 40¢	$8.64	$8.96	+$0.32	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
0X 0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274CTR<$100	Jetsavg 43.2¢	$3.87	$3.72	-$0.04	55% 425-352 (777)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jetsavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.08	-$0.03	52% 9497-8605 (18102)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Jetsavg 41¢	$1.43	$1.45	+$0.02	59% 52363-37089 (89452)

Multicoloured-Serf

Lightning

Invested

$2,805.81

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$72.61

Record

49%

516-547 (1063)

nigiri99CTR

Jets

Invested

$1,656.06

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$19.72

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Jets

Invested

$270.63

Value

$273.98

PnL

+$3.35

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

westing.v1CTR

Jets

Invested

$52.3

Value

$208.01

PnL

-$4.74

Record

50%

61-62 (123)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$82

Value

$83

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

Pan9X<$100

Lightning

Invested

$57

Value

$58.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$28.38

Value

$28.71

PnL

+$0.33

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$8.64

Value

$8.96

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$3.87

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$0.04

Record

55%

425-352 (777)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.02

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Research grade

NeutralLightning at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lightning

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Lightning. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrJets 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lightning wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.