Spread: Lightning (-1.5)

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Wild (83%) · Wild at 94¢ · $48K held · ended Nov 8

Lightning7¢Wild93¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wild

Consensus Traders

Wild 83%

Total Value

$47.5K

Combined PnL

$11.0K

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 93.5¢

+42% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralWild at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wild

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lightning7%

Wild94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wild10 traders

Total Value$47.5K

Total Shares55,565

Combined PnL+$11.0K

Lightning2 traders

Total Value$16.82

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$0.45

Wild — 83%Lightning — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Wildavg 65.5¢	$33.4K	$43.4K	+$10.0K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
HO HomeRunHazard	Wildavg 65.1¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$694.7	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
SE sentrio	Wildavg 79.5¢	$795	$925	+$130	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Wildavg 66¢	$408	$578	+$170	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
0xheavy888<$100	Wildavg 65¢	$65	$73.5	+$8.5	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Wildavg 86.5¢	$59.7	$64.52	+$4.81	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Wildavg 68.9¢	$43.8	$41.94	-$0.85	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
38 38791873984189<$100	Wildavg 91¢	$40.99	$28.17	-$12.82	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Wildavg 74¢	$18.5	$23.13	+$4.63	53% 12855-11522 (24377)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Lightningavg 14.4¢	$29	$14.81	-$0.59	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Wildavg 65¢	$3.25	$4.5	+$1.25	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Lightningavg 33¢	$1.87	$2.01	+$0.14	58% 21689-15792 (37481)

ferrariChampions2026

Wild

Invested

$33,400.35

Value

$43.4K

PnL

+$10.0K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

HomeRunHazard

Wild

Invested

$1,715.52

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$694.7

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

sentrio

Wild

Invested

$795

Value

$925

PnL

+$130

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Wild

Invested

$408

Value

$578

PnL

+$170

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

0xheavy888<$100

Wild

Invested

$65

Value

$73.5

PnL

+$8.5

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

Flaznorp<$100

Wild

Invested

$59.7

Value

$64.52

PnL

+$4.81

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Oddstorm<$100

Wild

Invested

$43.8

Value

$41.94

PnL

-$0.85

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

38791873984189<$100

Wild

Invested

$40.99

Value

$28.17

PnL

-$12.82

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

BoomLaLa<$100

Wild

Invested

$18.5

Value

$23.13

PnL

+$4.63

Record

53%

12855-11522 (24377)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$29

Value

$14.81

PnL

-$0.59

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

ameisgoat11<$100

Wild

Invested

$3.25

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$1.25

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Lightning

Invested

$1.87

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Research grade

NeutralWild at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wild

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wild wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.