Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (67%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 34¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$3.0K
$1.2K
36.2¢ → 33.5¢
-7% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 35¢ | $981.18 | $1.7K | +$700.85 | 55% 205-165 (370) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 36¢ | $376.03 | $626.71 | +$250.68 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 35.9¢ | $303.85 | $507.87 | +$204.01 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 54.2¢ | $116.85 | $129.41 | +$12.56 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 35.6¢ | $25.08 | $42.26 | +$17.19 | 55% 680-552 (1232) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 53.3¢ | $39.32 | $28.04 | +$0.32 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $3.6 | $6 | +$2.4 | 34% 327-634 (961) |
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$981.18
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$700.85
Record
55%
205-165 (370)
Invested
$376.03
Value
$626.71
PnL
+$250.68
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$303.85
Value
$507.87
PnL
+$204.01
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$116.85
Value
$129.41
PnL
+$12.56
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$25.08
Value
$42.26
PnL
+$17.19
Record
55%
680-552 (1232)
Invested
$39.32
Value
$28.04
PnL
+$0.32
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.4
Record
34%
327-634 (961)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.