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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Sabres — but Lightning won instead.

Spread: Lightning (-2.5)

Resolved Lightning. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Sabres. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Sabres 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$209.03

Combined PnL

$35.86

Smart Money Signal

Sabres

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lightning100%

Sabres0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lightning3 traders

Total Value$174.03

Total Shares174

Combined PnL+$133.12

Sabres6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares242

Combined PnL-$97.26

Lightning — 33%Sabres — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboi	Lightningavg 29.3¢	$47.56	$115.05	+$67.49	—
PA Pan9X	Lightningavg 42¢	$101.57	$57.68	+$64.63	49% 698-741 (1439)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Sabresavg 64¢	$185.8	$35	-$150.8	38% 222-363 (585)
└ Sabres leg	Sabresavg 64¢	$156.75	—	-$156.75
└ Lightning leg	Lightningavg 83¢	$29.05	$35	+$5.95
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sabresavg 49¢	$46.31	—	-$46.31	53% 1860-1677 (3537)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sabresavg 15¢	$9.15	—	-$9.15	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Sabresavg 31.1¢	$14	—	-$14	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Sabresavg 73¢	$29.2	—	-$29.2	—
CI cigarettes<$100	Lightningavg 23¢	$0.3	$1.3	+$1	53% 5845-5202 (11047)
poshposhCTR<$100	Sabresavg 12¢	$0.14	—	-$0.14	—
VA Vampiro1CTR<$100	Sabresavg 26¢	$20	—	+$1.54	— 10-1 (11)

Invested

$47.56

Value

$115.05

PnL

+$67.49

Record

—

Invested

$101.57

Value

$57.68

PnL

+$64.63

Record

49%

698-741 (1439)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Invested

$185.8

Value

$35

PnL

-$150.8

Record

38%

222-363 (585)

Both legs:

Sabres$156.7564¢-$156.75

Lightning$29.0583¢+$5.95

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Invested

$46.31

Value

—

PnL

-$46.31

Record

53%

1860-1677 (3537)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$9.15

Value

—

PnL

-$9.15

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$14

Value

—

PnL

-$14

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Invested

$29.2

Value

—

PnL

-$29.2

Record

—

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$0.3

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

5845-5202 (11047)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$0.14

Value

—

PnL

-$0.14

Record

—

Vampiro1CTR<$100

Invested

$20

Value

—

PnL

+$1.54

Record

—

10-1 (11)

Smart Money Signal

Sabres

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3473fd5e...8107bf

Slug

nhl-tb-buf-2026-11-11-spread-away-2pt5

Traders in this Market

topdogbigboi

Lightning — $115.05

Pan9X

Lightning — $57.68

justaluckydude

Arbitrage — excluded

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Sabres — $0

38791873984189

Sabres — $0

Flaznorp

Sabres — $0

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Sabres — $0

cigarettes

Lightning — $1.3

poshposh

Sabres — $0

Vampiro1

Sabres — $0

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