Blues vs. Utah: O/U 5.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 55¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 13

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$601.56

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 55¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,775

Combined PnL+$5.39

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares8,114

Combined PnL+$596.17

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 56.9¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$5.37	57% 3461-2635 (6096)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Underavg 43¢	$3.2K	$3.8K	+$596.41	52% 2603-2444 (5047)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 45¢	$143.93	$142.43	-$1.5	45% 143-173 (316)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 44.6¢	$91.8	$89.61	-$2.19	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 42.6¢	$40.02	$43.16	+$3.14	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$9.9	$10.12	+$0.22	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$7.24	$7.33	+$0.09	36% 577-1014 (1591)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Overavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.15	+$0.02	43% 54-72 (126)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$4,444.17

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$5.37

Record

57%

3461-2635 (6096)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Under

Invested

$3,205.69

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$596.41

Record

52%

2603-2444 (5047)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$143.93

Value

$142.43

PnL

-$1.5

Record

45%

143-173 (316)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.8

Value

$89.61

PnL

-$2.19

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.02

Value

$43.16

PnL

+$3.14

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10.12

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.24

Value

$7.33

PnL

+$0.09

Record

36%

577-1014 (1591)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Over

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.02

Record

43%

54-72 (126)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.