Spread: Utah (-1.5)
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Blues (25%) · Blues at 73¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Blues
8
Blues 25%
$14.4K
-$1.6
72¢ → 72.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBlues at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Blues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Bluesavg 72¢ | $10.3K | $10.3K | +$71.23 | 51% 2082-2008 (4090) |
HI hi774cCTR | Utahavg 28¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$44.92 | 19% 126-532 (658) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Utahavg 28¢ | $853.68 | $838.36 | -$15.31 | 37% 37-63 (100) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Utahavg 28¢ | $560 | $550 | -$10 | 54% 281-239 (520) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Utahavg 30¢ | $101.1 | $94.36 | -$6.74 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
 fyrsken<$100 | Bluesavg 68¢ | $74.38 | $78.75 | +$4.37 | 48% 28-30 (58) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Utahavg 28¢ | $9.53 | $9.36 | -$0.17 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Utahavg 28¢ | $3.08 | $3.03 | -$0.05 | 49% 1083-1137 (2220) |
Invested
$10,256.43
Value
$10.3K
PnL
+$71.23
Record
51%
2082-2008 (4090)
Invested
$2,515.31
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$44.92
Record
19%
126-532 (658)
Invested
$853.68
Value
$838.36
PnL
-$15.31
Record
37%
37-63 (100)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$560
Value
$550
PnL
-$10
Record
54%
281-239 (520)
Invested
$101.1
Value
$94.36
PnL
-$6.74
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
fyrsken<$100Invested
$74.38
Value
$78.75
PnL
+$4.37
Record
48%
28-30 (58)
Invested
$9.53
Value
$9.36
PnL
-$0.17
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
Invested
$3.08
Value
$3.03
PnL
-$0.05
Record
49%
1083-1137 (2220)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.