Blues vs. Utah
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (44%) · Utah at 53¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Utah
9
Utah 44%
$6.8K
-$128.15
53.5¢ → 52.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUtah at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
44% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldy | Utahavg 54¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$120 | — 7-10 (17) |
 rafaleaoo | Utahavg 53¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$25 | 3% 17-635 (652) |
TA taylorsversionCTR | Bluesavg 46.8¢ | $464.99 | $471.46 | +$6.47 | 53% 102-90 (192) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bluesavg 46¢ | $412.3 | $421.26 | +$8.96 | 57% 3457-2627 (6084) |
 fyrskenCTR<$100 | Bluesavg 45¢ | $39.62 | $41.38 | +$1.76 | 47% 26-29 (55) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Bluesavg 46¢ | $33.81 | $34.55 | +$0.74 | 50% 1226-1249 (2475) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Utahavg 55¢ | $25.85 | $24.44 | -$1.41 | 49% 1071-1127 (2198) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Utahavg 52¢ | $14.02 | $14.15 | +$0.13 | 52% 754-704 (1458) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Bluesavg 46¢ | $8.99 | $9.19 | +$0.2 | 32% 536-1124 (1660) |
Invested
$3,239.99
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$120
Record
—
7-10 (17)
rafaleaooInvested
$2,650
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$25
Record
3%
17-635 (652)
Invested
$464.99
Value
$471.46
PnL
+$6.47
Record
53%
102-90 (192)
Invested
$412.3
Value
$421.26
PnL
+$8.96
Record
57%
3457-2627 (6084)
fyrskenCTR<$100Invested
$39.62
Value
$41.38
PnL
+$1.76
Record
47%
26-29 (55)
Invested
$33.81
Value
$34.55
PnL
+$0.74
Record
50%
1226-1249 (2475)
Invested
$25.85
Value
$24.44
PnL
-$1.41
Record
49%
1071-1127 (2198)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$14.02
Value
$14.15
PnL
+$0.13
Record
52%
754-704 (1458)
Invested
$8.99
Value
$9.19
PnL
+$0.2
Record
32%
536-1124 (1660)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.