Sharks vs. Utah: O/U 7.5
10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 97¢ · $522 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Over
12
Over 83%
$522.28
-$216.19
67.7¢ → 96.5¢
+43% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 62¢ | $443.16 | $196.56 | -$246.6 | 55% 5758-4807 (10565) |
BO BoomLaLa | Overavg 74.9¢ | $88.21 | $115.77 | +$27.56 | 34% 174-332 (506) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Overavg 87¢ | $77.43 | $68.98 | -$8.45 | 49% 588-623 (1211) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Overavg 96.3¢ | $48.15 | $49.15 | +$1 | 46% 809-954 (1763) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 61.3¢ | $53.94 | $29.45 | +$19.01 | 50% 1850-1880 (3730) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 96.5¢ | $26.04 | $24.27 | -$1.77 | 49% 4352-4620 (8972) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Underavg 35¢ | $7.7 | $15.95 | +$8.25 | 46% 884-1056 (1940) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 59.9¢ | $28.77 | $13.2 | -$15.57 | 47% 3580-3963 (7543) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 90¢ | $4.68 | $4.73 | +$0.05 | 53% 2078-1852 (3930) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $2.09 | $2.43 | +$0.34 | 38% 1351-2180 (3531) |
 dips.<$100 | Overavg 96.3¢ | $1.43 | $1.45 | +$0.03 | 48% 1156-1264 (2420) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $0.37 | $0.33 | -$0.04 | 48% 2348-2563 (4911) |
RN1Invested
$443.16
Value
$196.56
PnL
-$246.6
Record
55%
5758-4807 (10565)
Invested
$88.21
Value
$115.77
PnL
+$27.56
Record
34%
174-332 (506)
Invested
$77.43
Value
$68.98
PnL
-$8.45
Record
49%
588-623 (1211)
Invested
$48.15
Value
$49.15
PnL
+$1
Record
46%
809-954 (1763)
Invested
$53.94
Value
$29.45
PnL
+$19.01
Record
50%
1850-1880 (3730)
Invested
$26.04
Value
$24.27
PnL
-$1.77
Record
49%
4352-4620 (8972)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$15.95
PnL
+$8.25
Record
46%
884-1056 (1940)
Invested
$28.77
Value
$13.2
PnL
-$15.57
Record
47%
3580-3963 (7543)
Invested
$4.68
Value
$4.73
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
2078-1852 (3930)
Invested
$2.09
Value
$2.43
PnL
+$0.34
Record
38%
1351-2180 (3531)
dips.<$100Invested
$1.43
Value
$1.45
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
1156-1264 (2420)
Invested
$0.37
Value
$0.33
PnL
-$0.04
Record
48%
2348-2563 (4911)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.