Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sharks, while the market favors Utah (92%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Sharks (-1.5)
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Sharks (38%) · Sharks at 8.5¢ · $608 held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Sharks
8
Sharks 38%
$607.97
$8.73
19¢ → 8.5¢
-55% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSharks at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversionCTR | Sharksavg 19¢ | $255.71 | $269.16 | +$13.46 | 53% 109-98 (207) |
 0xheavy888 | Utahavg 81.5¢ | $163 | $160 | -$3 | 56% 574-455 (1029) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Utahavg 82¢ | $82 | $89 | +$7 | 49% 4290-4528 (8818) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Utahavg 81¢ | $28.35 | $28 | -$0.35 | 49% 389-413 (802) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Utahavg 81¢ | $25.77 | $25.46 | -$0.32 | 53% 2063-1842 (3905) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Sharksavg 18¢ | $18 | $20 | +$2 | 53% 7310-6373 (13683) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Sharksavg 20¢ | $22.4 | $12.32 | -$10.08 | 51% 639-619 (1258) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Utahavg 80¢ | $4 | $4.03 | +$0.03 | 42% 740-1034 (1774) |
Invested
$255.71
Value
$269.16
PnL
+$13.46
Record
53%
109-98 (207)
0xheavy888Invested
$163
Value
$160
PnL
-$3
Record
56%
574-455 (1029)
Invested
$82
Value
$89
PnL
+$7
Record
49%
4290-4528 (8818)
Invested
$28.35
Value
$28
PnL
-$0.35
Record
49%
389-413 (802)
Invested
$25.77
Value
$25.46
PnL
-$0.32
Record
53%
2063-1842 (3905)
Invested
$18
Value
$20
PnL
+$2
Record
53%
7310-6373 (13683)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$22.4
Value
$12.32
PnL
-$10.08
Record
51%
639-619 (1258)
Invested
$4
Value
$4.03
PnL
+$0.03
Record
42%
740-1034 (1774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.