Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (64%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kraken vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 36¢ · $142 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 86%
$142.08
-$12.14
46.8¢ → 36¢
-23% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Under 64%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $46.53 | $47.52 | +$0.99 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $33.44 | $26.8 | +$5.54 | 50% 1594-1620 (3214) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $25.72 | $24.7 | -$1.02 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $17.16 | $17.52 | +$0.37 | 50% 2543-2505 (5048) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Overavg 65¢ | $25.35 | $10.92 | -$14.43 | 47% 540-597 (1137) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 20¢ | $6.24 | $8.74 | +$2.5 | 35% 162-305 (467) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $11.97 | $5.88 | -$6.09 | 37% 1063-1796 (2859) |
Invested
$46.53
Value
$47.52
PnL
+$0.99
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$33.44
Value
$26.8
PnL
+$5.54
Record
50%
1594-1620 (3214)
Invested
$25.72
Value
$24.7
PnL
-$1.02
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Invested
$17.16
Value
$17.52
PnL
+$0.37
Record
50%
2543-2505 (5048)
Invested
$25.35
Value
$10.92
PnL
-$14.43
Record
47%
540-597 (1137)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$8.74
PnL
+$2.5
Record
35%
162-305 (467)
Invested
$11.97
Value
$5.88
PnL
-$6.09
Record
37%
1063-1796 (2859)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.