Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Kraken (80%) · Kraken at 55¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Hurricanes45¢Kraken55¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kraken

Consensus Traders

Kraken 80%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$7.39

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 55¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hurricanes45%

Kraken55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kraken8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,012

Combined PnL+$0.96

Hurricanes2 traders

Total Value$497.07

Total Shares1,129

Combined PnL-$8.35

Kraken — 80%Hurricanes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+60 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKraken 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedKraken 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kraken 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Krakenavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Hurricanesavg 44.8¢	$487.99	$479.25	-$8.74	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
38 38791873984189	Krakenavg 55¢	$475.75	$426.64	+$0.89	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
VeryLucky888	Krakenavg 55¢	$205.66	$205.66	+$0	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Krakenavg 55¢	$198.93	$199.1	+$0.17	48% 293-321 (614)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Hurricanesavg 44¢	$17.43	$17.82	+$0.4	54% 503-421 (924)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Krakenavg 55¢	$17.05	$17.05	+$0	54% 286-244 (530)
PA Pan9X<$100	Krakenavg 55.6¢	$13.46	$13.31	-$0.15	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
GH ghorrock<$100	Krakenavg 55¢	$6.87	$6.87	+$0	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
fyrsken<$100	Krakenavg 54¢	$2.56	$2.61	+$0.05	52% 56-52 (108)

HomeRunHazard

Kraken

Invested

$1,335.13

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Hurricanes

Invested

$487.99

Value

$479.25

PnL

-$8.74

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

38791873984189

Kraken

Invested

$475.75

Value

$426.64

PnL

+$0.89

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

VeryLucky888

Kraken

Invested

$205.66

Value

$205.66

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Kraken

Invested

$198.93

Value

$199.1

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$17.43

Value

$17.82

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Kraken

Invested

$17.05

Value

$17.05

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Pan9X<$100

Kraken

Invested

$13.46

Value

$13.31

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

ghorrock<$100

Kraken

Invested

$6.87

Value

$6.87

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

fyrsken<$100

Kraken

Invested

$2.56

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

56-52 (108)

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+60 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKraken 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedKraken 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kraken 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kraken wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.