Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kraken, while the market favors Flames (70%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Kraken (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kraken (50%) · Kraken at 30¢ · $407 held · ends Oct 31

Kraken30¢Flames70¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kraken

Consensus Traders

Kraken 50%

Total Value

$406.86

Combined PnL

-$4.58

Smart Money Entry

30.8¢ → 30¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Flames 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kraken30%

Flames70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kraken2 traders

Total Value$392.86

Total Shares1,350

Combined PnL-$4.5

Flames2 traders

Total Value$14

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$0.08

Kraken — 50%Flames — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fyrskenCTR	Krakenavg 31¢	$372	$348	-$6	49% 276-287 (563)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Krakenavg 29¢	$43.37	$44.86	+$1.5	45% 669-828 (1497)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Flamesavg 70¢	$11.2	$11.2	-$0.08	54% 2975-2554 (5529)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Flamesavg 70¢	$2.8	$2.8	+$0	58% 28414-20974 (49388)

fyrskenCTR

Kraken

Invested

$372

Value

$348

PnL

-$6

Record

49%

276-287 (563)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$43.37

Value

$44.86

PnL

+$1.5

Record

45%

669-828 (1497)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Flames

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.2

PnL

-$0.08

Record

54%

2975-2554 (5529)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Flames

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28414-20974 (49388)

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 30%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Flames 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kraken wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.