Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 9 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Penguins vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 47¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$23.54

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 47¢

-17% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,560

Combined PnL+$1.12

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,527

Combined PnL+$22.42

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 57.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$9.22	57% 3234-2442 (5676)
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$25.23	—
LI LightParadox	Underavg 42¢	$297.68	$322.49	+$24.81	31% 423-938 (1361)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 55¢	$204.36	$207.33	+$2.96	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$126.71	$123.25	-$3.46
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.9¢	$77.65	$84.07	+$6.42
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 44.9¢	$120.21	$143.19	+$22.98	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$44.78	$44.37	-$0.41	57% 4077-3095 (7172)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$44.43	$32.78	-$6.66	—
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 54.7¢	$38.3	$32.55	-$5.75	38% 222-363 (585)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 51.6¢	$50.44	$25.91	+$2.77	49% 698-741 (1439)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$18.24	$18.56	+$0.32	—
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$9.68	$11.33	+$1.65	45% 262-316 (578)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 42.9¢	$7.57	$7.41	-$0.16	55% 699-561 (1260)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$3.26	$3.43	+$0.17	—
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.43	+$0.07	29% 180-434 (614)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.1	-$0.05	34% 332-644 (976)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$1	$0.81	-$0.19	10% 20-179 (199)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,854.06

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$9.22

Record

57%

3234-2442 (5676)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$1,085.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$25.23

Record

—

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$297.68

Value

$322.49

PnL

+$24.81

Record

31%

423-938 (1361)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$204.36

Value

$207.33

PnL

+$2.96

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

Both legs:

Over$126.7155¢-$3.46

Under$77.6542.9¢+$6.42

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$120.21

Value

$143.19

PnL

+$22.98

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.78

Value

$44.37

PnL

-$0.41

Record

57%

4077-3095 (7172)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.43

Value

$32.78

PnL

-$6.66

Record

—

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.3

Value

$32.55

PnL

-$5.75

Record

38%

222-363 (585)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.44

Value

$25.91

PnL

+$2.77

Record

49%

698-741 (1439)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.24

Value

$18.56

PnL

+$0.32

Record

—

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.68

Value

$11.33

PnL

+$1.65

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.57

Value

$7.41

PnL

-$0.16

Record

55%

699-561 (1260)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.17

Record

—

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.07

Record

29%

180-434 (614)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

34%

332-644 (976)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$0.19

Record

10%

20-179 (199)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.