Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Penguins vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 50¢ · $355 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$355.44
$42.63
32.2¢ → 50¢
+55% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 32¢ | $235.29 | $272.06 | +$36.76 | 47% 350-393 (743) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $82.99 | $59.51 | +$6.52 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 65.4¢ | $17.67 | $17.01 | -$0.66 | 49% 786-829 (1615) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 63¢ | $1.89 | $1.89 | +$0 | 36% 410-719 (1129) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.85 | +$0.2 | 35% 376-688 (1064) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $1.85 | $1.85 | +$0 | 31% 242-544 (786) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $1 | $0.74 | -$0.26 | 12% 24-179 (203) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $0.47 | $0.54 | +$0.07 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
Invested
$235.29
Value
$272.06
PnL
+$36.76
Record
47%
350-393 (743)
Invested
$82.99
Value
$59.51
PnL
+$6.52
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$17.67
Value
$17.01
PnL
-$0.66
Record
49%
786-829 (1615)
Invested
$1.89
Value
$1.89
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
410-719 (1129)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0.2
Record
35%
376-688 (1064)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
242-544 (786)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$0.26
Record
12%
24-179 (203)
Invested
$0.47
Value
$0.54
PnL
+$0.07
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.