Spread: Sharks (-1.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Penguins (60%) · Penguins at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Sharks<1¢Penguins>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Penguins

Consensus Traders

Penguins 60%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$50.79

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 99.6¢

+26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPenguins at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penguins

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sharks0%

Penguins100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penguins6 traders

Total Value$999.52

Total Shares1,143

Combined PnL+$88.46

Sharks4 traders

Total Value$25.43

Total Shares483

Combined PnL-$37.67

Penguins — 60%Sharks — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Penguins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPenguins 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPenguins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Penguins 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Penguinsavg 76¢	$737.71	$844.48	+$106.77	54% 236-199 (435)
38 38791873984189	Penguinsavg 99¢	$106.71	$80.16	-$12.55	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
PA Pan9X<$100	Penguinsavg 99.1¢	$50.93	$45.36	-$5.57	47% 896-997 (1893)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Sharksavg 24¢	$48	$21.24	-$26.77	51% 283-275 (558)
RN1<$100	Penguinsavg 92¢	$18.15	$17.64	-$0.52	57% 4319-3324 (7643)
LR lryyy<$100	Penguinsavg 87¢	$9.57	$9.83	+$0.26	45% 341-422 (763)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sharksavg 10¢	$3	$3.19	+$0.19	37% 470-810 (1280)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Penguinsavg 86.9¢	$2	$2.06	+$0.06	12% 24-179 (203)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Sharksavg 1¢	$1.48	$0.61	-$0.87	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Sharksavg 10.6¢	$10.62	$0.4	-$10.22	48% 145-156 (301)

0xheavy888

Penguins

Invested

$737.71

Value

$844.48

PnL

+$106.77

Record

54%

236-199 (435)

38791873984189

Penguins

Invested

$106.71

Value

$80.16

PnL

-$12.55

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

Pan9X<$100

Penguins

Invested

$50.93

Value

$45.36

PnL

-$5.57

Record

47%

896-997 (1893)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$48

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$26.77

Record

51%

283-275 (558)

RN1<$100

Penguins

Invested

$18.15

Value

$17.64

PnL

-$0.52

Record

57%

4319-3324 (7643)

lryyy<$100

Penguins

Invested

$9.57

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$0.26

Record

45%

341-422 (763)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$0.19

Record

37%

470-810 (1280)

NordhavenCap<$100

Penguins

Invested

Value

$2.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

12%

24-179 (203)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$1.48

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$0.87

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$10.62

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$10.22

Record

48%

145-156 (301)

Research grade

NeutralPenguins at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Penguins

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Penguins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPenguins 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPenguins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Penguins 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penguins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.