Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Penguins, while the market favors Sharks (52%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Penguins (86%) · Penguins at 49¢ · $108 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Penguins
7
Penguins 86%
$108.3
$7.82
Research grade
NeutralPenguins at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Sharks 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Penguins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fyrskenCTR<$100 | Penguinsavg 36¢ | $36.78 | $37.8 | +$1.02 | 39% 13-20 (33) |
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR<$100 | Penguinsavg 35.4¢ | $30.74 | $32.11 | +$1.37 | 47% 17-19 (36) |
CH chubbytoroCTR<$100 | Penguinsavg 35¢ | $11.06 | $15.33 | +$4.27 | — 4-13 (17) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Sharksavg 54.8¢ | $15.3 | $14.37 | -$0.92 | 49% 786-829 (1615) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Penguinsavg 35¢ | $4.13 | $5.72 | +$1.59 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Penguinsavg 33¢ | $1.48 | $1.66 | +$0.18 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100 | Penguinsavg 37¢ | $1 | $1.31 | +$0.31 | 12% 24-179 (203) |
fyrskenCTR<$100Invested
$36.78
Value
$37.8
PnL
+$1.02
Record
39%
13-20 (33)
Invested
$30.74
Value
$32.11
PnL
+$1.37
Record
47%
17-19 (36)
Invested
$11.06
Value
$15.33
PnL
+$4.27
Record
—
4-13 (17)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$14.37
PnL
-$0.92
Record
49%
786-829 (1615)
Invested
$4.13
Value
$5.72
PnL
+$1.59
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$1.48
Value
$1.66
PnL
+$0.18
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.31
PnL
+$0.31
Record
12%
24-179 (203)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.