Flyers vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 99¢ · $988 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$987.86
$70.19
74.5¢ → 99.2¢
+33% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 73¢ | $614.2 | $816.13 | +$75.72 | 57% 3010-2261 (5271) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 78.9¢ | $88.56 | $104.77 | -$1.85 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 97¢ | $37.53 | $37.53 | -$0.72 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $20.64 | $27.42 | +$3.82 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 14.6¢ | $8.81 | $2.01 | -$6.79 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
Invested
$614.2
Value
$816.13
PnL
+$75.72
Record
57%
3010-2261 (5271)
Invested
$88.56
Value
$104.77
PnL
-$1.85
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$37.53
Value
$37.53
PnL
-$0.72
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$20.64
Value
$27.42
PnL
+$3.82
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$8.81
Value
$2.01
PnL
-$6.79
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.