Flyers vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 53¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 10

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.2K

Combined PnL

$129.03

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares26,223

Combined PnL+$131.04

Over3 traders

Total Value$241.04

Total Shares491

Combined PnL-$2

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Underavg 52¢	$13.2K	$13.3K	+$126.85	7% 30-411 (441)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$71.73	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$37.61
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$34.12
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$20.76	50% 405-412 (817)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$702	$708.75	+$7.31
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.1¢	$450.77	$464.21	+$13.45
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 52¢	$422.37	$426.43	+$4.06	48% 69-75 (144)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 48¢	$224.16	$221.83	-$2.34	42% 29-40 (69)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 52.2¢	$18.9	$19	+$0.1	58% 134-99 (233)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 46.8¢	$16.63	$16.84	+$0.21	49% 183-194 (377)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.63	+$0.02	23% 30-101 (131)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.38	+$0.13	22% 54-197 (251)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Under

Invested

$13,192.2

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$126.85

Record

30-411 (441)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,990.86

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$71.73

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Under$3,911.9252¢+$37.61

Over$2,078.9446.7¢+$34.12

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,181.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$20.76

Record

50%

405-412 (817)

Both legs:

Under$70252¢+$7.31

Over$450.7746.1¢+$13.45

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$422.37

Value

$426.43

PnL

+$4.06

Record

48%

69-75 (144)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$224.16

Value

$221.83

PnL

-$2.34

Record

42%

29-40 (69)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$18.9

Value

$19

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

134-99 (233)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.63

Value

$16.84

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

183-194 (377)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.02

Record

23%

30-101 (131)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

22%

54-197 (251)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.