Flyers vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 71¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
1 arb excluded
$18.4K
-$146.13
58.8¢ → 70.5¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA DaBossHogg | Overavg 58.7¢ | $10.0K | $12.1K | +$2.1K | — 0-14 (14) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 41.1¢ | $7.8K | $5.6K | $-2.2K | 29% 32-78 (110) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 41.4¢ | $315.45 | $304.5 | -$10.95 | 48% 77-84 (161) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $319.85 | $214.65 | -$32.54 | 49% 427-449 (876) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 41¢ | $155.4 | $117.5 | -$34.52 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 67.6¢ | $95.17 | $97.15 | +$1.99 | |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 63¢ | $64.43 | $66.81 | +$4.53 | 49% 193-198 (391) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $54.12 | $38.94 | -$15.18 | 53% 330-294 (624) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $63.58 | $37.83 | +$0.32 | 69% 34-15 (49) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $34 | $34.5 | +$0.5 | 8% 11-120 (131) |
Invested
$10,000
Value
$12.1K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
—
0-14 (14)
Invested
$7,835.25
Value
$5.6K
PnL
$-2.2K
Record
29%
32-78 (110)
Invested
$315.45
Value
$304.5
PnL
-$10.95
Record
48%
77-84 (161)
Invested
$319.85
Value
$214.65
PnL
-$32.54
Record
49%
427-449 (876)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.43
Value
$66.81
PnL
+$4.53
Record
49%
193-198 (391)
Invested
$54.12
Value
$38.94
PnL
-$15.18
Record
53%
330-294 (624)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$63.58
Value
$37.83
PnL
+$0.32
Record
69%
34-15 (49)
Invested
$34
Value
$34.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
8%
11-120 (131)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.