Flyers vs. Canucks: O/U 4.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 80¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 10

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$193.09

Smart Money Entry

40.8¢ → 79.5¢

+95% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,560

Combined PnL+$204.27

Over2 traders

Total Value$162.41

Total Shares363

Combined PnL-$11.17

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 77.8¢	$4.5K	$7.0K	+$155.88	57% 3010-2261 (5271)
└ Under leg	Underavg 20¢	$1.4K	$3.8K	-$72.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 77.8¢	$5.5K	$3.3K	+$228.38
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 50.4¢	$790.44	$928.88	+$138.44	54% 1541-1296 (2837)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 74.7¢	$732.06	$777.71	+$71.68	48% 603-645 (1248)
└ Under leg	Underavg 20¢	$158.2	$486.46	+$345.9
└ Over leg	Overavg 74.7¢	$565.46	$291.25	-$274.22
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 20.6¢	$87.21	$219.84	+$39.62	7% 55-754 (809)
PU purplegattoCTR	Overavg 79¢	$104.5	$101.2	-$3.3	69% 2536-1149 (3685)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 48.8¢	$98.39	$61.21	-$7.87	47% 329-371 (700)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 28¢	$30.66	$56.87	+$26.21	50% 1275-1295 (2570)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,496.2

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$155.88

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

Both legs:

Under$1,45020¢-$72.5

Over$5,537.7477.8¢+$228.38

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$790.44

Value

$928.88

PnL

+$138.44

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$732.06

Value

$777.71

PnL

+$71.68

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Both legs:

Under$158.220¢+$345.9

Over$565.4674.7¢-$274.22

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$87.21

Value

$219.84

PnL

+$39.62

Record

55-754 (809)

purplegattoCTR

Over

Invested

$104.5

Value

$101.2

PnL

-$3.3

Record

69%

2536-1149 (3685)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$98.39

Value

$61.21

PnL

-$7.87

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$30.66

Value

$56.87

PnL

+$26.21

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.