Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Flyers vs. Canucks: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 42¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$2.2K
-$136.54
82.1¢ → 41.5¢
-49% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+30 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 88.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$138.14 | 52% 92-86 (178) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 66.5¢ | $494.2 | $367.73 | -$126.47 | 54% 1541-1296 (2837) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 11.4¢ | $151.46 | $229.73 | +$32.56 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
FO forecastication4 | Underavg 11¢ | $64.03 | $192.09 | +$29.11 | 10% 20-182 (202) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 18.2¢ | $25.84 | $72.42 | +$46.58 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 69.4¢ | $46.38 | $66.95 | +$18.93 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $4.48 | $5.39 | +$0.91 | 12% 22-166 (188) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$1,414.49
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$138.14
Record
52%
92-86 (178)
Invested
$494.2
Value
$367.73
PnL
-$126.47
Record
54%
1541-1296 (2837)
Invested
$151.46
Value
$229.73
PnL
+$32.56
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$64.03
Value
$192.09
PnL
+$29.11
Record
10%
20-182 (202)
Invested
$25.84
Value
$72.42
PnL
+$46.58
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$46.38
Value
$66.95
PnL
+$18.93
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$5.39
PnL
+$0.91
Record
12%
22-166 (188)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.