Spread: Canucks (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (50%) · Flyers at 99¢ · $816 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Flyers
6
Flyers 50%
$816.44
-$6.1
86.1¢ → 99.2¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlyers at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Flyersavg 86.2¢ | $724.03 | $722.05 | -$1.98 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Canucksavg 13.9¢ | $51.3 | $51.55 | +$0.24 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Canucksavg 12.7¢ | $20.76 | $22.88 | +$2.12 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Canucksavg 24¢ | $18.31 | $10.68 | -$7.63 | 4% 21-541 (562) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Flyersavg 75¢ | $4.35 | $4.99 | +$0.64 | 57% 70-52 (122) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Flyersavg 76¢ | $3.79 | $4.29 | +$0.5 | 34% 147-291 (438) |
Invested
$724.03
Value
$722.05
PnL
-$1.98
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$51.3
Value
$51.55
PnL
+$0.24
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$20.76
Value
$22.88
PnL
+$2.12
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$18.31
Value
$10.68
PnL
-$7.63
Record
4%
21-541 (562)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$4.35
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$0.64
Record
57%
70-52 (122)
Invested
$3.79
Value
$4.29
PnL
+$0.5
Record
34%
147-291 (438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.