Spread: Flyers (-2.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (57%) · Flyers at 53¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Flyers53¢Canucks47¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Flyers

Consensus Traders

Flyers 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$368.93

Smart Money Entry

36.9¢ → 52.5¢

+42% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Flyers53%

Canucks48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flyers4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,358

Combined PnL+$465.1

Canucks3 traders

Total Value$383.63

Total Shares771

Combined PnL-$96.17

Flyers — 57%Canucks — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFlyers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpFlyers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFlyers 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Flyers 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Flyersavg 48¢	$546.86	$751.93	+$205.07	48% 24-26 (50)
HO HomeRunHazard	Flyersavg 21¢	$198.48	$623.81	+$231.56	57% 3010-2261 (5271)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Flyersavg 53¢	$383.94	$312.19	-$25.53	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 53¢	$170.18	$168.61	-$2.45
└ Canucks leg	Canucksavg 55.1¢	$166.65	$143.58	-$23.07
38 38791873984189CTR	Canucksavg 52.2¢	$353.93	$265.17	-$88.76	48% 603-645 (1248)
BO BoomLaLa	Flyersavg 45.9¢	$173.81	$140.98	+$26.46	12% 22-166 (188)
PA Pan9XCTR	Canucksavg 51.6¢	$120.75	$106.78	-$0.62	47% 329-371 (700)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Canucksavg 77¢	$18.35	$11.67	-$6.79	57% 70-52 (122)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Flyersavg 46¢	$4.6	$6.6	+$2	54% 1541-1296 (2837)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Flyers

Invested

$546.86

Value

$751.93

PnL

+$205.07

Record

48%

24-26 (50)

HomeRunHazard

Flyers

Invested

$198.48

Value

$623.81

PnL

+$231.56

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Flyers

Invested

$383.94

Value

$312.19

PnL

-$25.53

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

Both legs:

Flyers$170.1853¢-$2.45

Canucks$166.6555.1¢-$23.07

38791873984189CTR

Canucks

Invested

$353.93

Value

$265.17

PnL

-$88.76

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

BoomLaLa

Flyers

Invested

$173.81

Value

$140.98

PnL

+$26.46

Record

12%

22-166 (188)

Pan9XCTR

Canucks

Invested

$120.75

Value

$106.78

PnL

-$0.62

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$18.35

Value

$11.67

PnL

-$6.79

Record

57%

70-52 (122)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Flyers

Invested

$4.6

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$2

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFlyers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpFlyers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFlyers 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Flyers 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Flyers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.