Spread: Flyers (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (80%) · Flyers at 78¢ · $876 held · ended Nov 10

Flyers78¢Canucks22¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Flyers

Consensus Traders

Flyers 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$875.8

Combined PnL

$23.05

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 77.5¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Flyers78%

Canucks23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flyers4 traders

Total Value$421.25

Total Shares560

Combined PnL+$23.05

Canucks1 trader

Total Value$2.99

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$0

Flyers — 80%Canucks — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Canucksavg 45.8¢	$426.25	$359.18	+$13.77	48% 603-645 (1248)
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 33¢	$90.92	$203.88	+$131.76
└ Canucks leg	Canucksavg 45.8¢	$273.29	$155.3	-$117.99
FL Flaznorp	Flyersavg 73.9¢	$237.94	$248	+$10.06	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Flyersavg 44¢	$86.09	$140.87	+$7.83	48% 24-26 (50)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Canucksavg 45.5¢	$161.56	$92.38	-$50.82	47% 329-371 (700)
└ Canucks leg	Canucksavg 45.5¢	$96.85	$55.38	-$51.82
└ Flyers leg	Flyersavg 72¢	$36	$37	+$1
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Flyersavg 63.1¢	$23.43	$28.4	+$4.97	12% 22-166 (188)
CI cigarettes<$100	Flyersavg 73¢	$3.79	$3.97	+$0.18	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Canucksavg 33¢	$2.99	$2.99	+$0	54% 1541-1296 (2837)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Canucks

Invested

$426.25

Value

$359.18

PnL

+$13.77

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Both legs:

Flyers$90.9233¢+$131.76

Canucks$273.2945.8¢-$117.99

Flaznorp

Flyers

Invested

$237.94

Value

$248

PnL

+$10.06

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Flyers

Invested

$86.09

Value

$140.87

PnL

+$7.83

Record

48%

24-26 (50)

Pan9XARB<$100

Canucks

Invested

$161.56

Value

$92.38

PnL

-$50.82

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

Both legs:

Canucks$96.8545.5¢-$51.82

Flyers$3672¢+$1

BoomLaLa<$100

Flyers

Invested

$23.43

Value

$28.4

PnL

+$4.97

Record

12%

22-166 (188)

cigarettes<$100

Flyers

Invested

$3.79

Value

$3.97

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$2.99

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Flyers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.