Flyers vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 94¢ · $363 held · ended Nov 12

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$362.77

Combined PnL

$23.56

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 93.5¢

+27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$338.89

Total Shares403

Combined PnL+$40.96

Over5 traders

Total Value$23.88

Total Shares298

Combined PnL-$17.4

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GamblingOdyssey	Underavg 73¢	$191.26	$220.08	+$28.82	34% 10-19 (29)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 75.6¢	$95.57	$106.21	+$10.64	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 74¢	$11.1	$12.6	+$1.5	49% 973-998 (1971)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 7.5¢	$6	$7.6	+$1.6	36% 410-719 (1129)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 8.8¢	$5.76	$6.2	+$0.44	49% 786-829 (1615)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 5.3¢	$2.85	$5.12	+$2.27	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$25.38	$4.7	-$20.68	52% 235-217 (452)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$1.29	$0.26	-$1.03	55% 729-596 (1325)

GamblingOdyssey

Under

Invested

$191.26

Value

$220.08

PnL

+$28.82

Record

34%

10-19 (29)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$95.57

Value

$106.21

PnL

+$10.64

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$11.1

Value

$12.6

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$1.6

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.76

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$0.44

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$2.27

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.38

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$20.68

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.29

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$1.03

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.