Flyers vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
$2.0K
$61.17
Research grade
NeutralOver at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Vladooos | Overavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$60 | 61% 20-13 (33) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $867.5 | $884.85 | +$17.35 | 52% 1914-1760 (3674) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 50¢ | $166.16 | $28.92 | -$0.23 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $20.96 | $21.53 | +$0.57 | 49% 786-829 (1615) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.2¢ | $33.35 | $15.63 | -$17.72 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $6.45 | $7.65 | +$1.2 | 49% 973-998 (1971) |
VladooosInvested
$1,000
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$60
Record
61%
20-13 (33)
Invested
$867.5
Value
$884.85
PnL
+$17.35
Record
52%
1914-1760 (3674)
Invested
$166.16
Value
$28.92
PnL
-$0.23
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$20.96
Value
$21.53
PnL
+$0.57
Record
49%
786-829 (1615)
Invested
$33.35
Value
$15.63
PnL
-$17.72
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Invested
$6.45
Value
$7.65
PnL
+$1.2
Record
49%
973-998 (1971)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.