Flyers vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 7.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 68¢ · $681 held · ended Nov 15

Over68¢Under32¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$680.7

Combined PnL

$74.27

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 67.5¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$448.28

Total Shares607

Combined PnL+$95.18

Under4 traders

Total Value$132.11

Total Shares263

Combined PnL-$20.91

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Pan9X	Overavg 69.2¢	$148.97	$186.26	+$37.29	49% 1751-1796 (3547)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 75¢	$107.64	$124.08	+$16.44	38% 1276-2064 (3340)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$113.34	$100.31	-$13.03	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58¢	$53.94	$53.01	-$0.93
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$59.4	$47.3	-$12.1
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 42¢	$39.06	$71.15	+$32.08	34% 169-323 (492)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 77¢	$65.72	$56.33	-$9.39	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 23¢	$19.63	$36.7	+$17.07	37% 1155-1943 (3098)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Underavg 81¢	$41.53	$33.84	-$7.69	49% 313-320 (633)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$33.53	$31.37	-$2.16	37% 1136-1917 (3053)
dips.<$100	Overavg 54¢	$37.8	$30.1	-$7.7	48% 1108-1208 (2316)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Underavg 66¢	$12.24	$10.57	-$1.67	45% 140-171 (311)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$148.97

Value

$186.26

PnL

+$37.29

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$107.64

Value

$124.08

PnL

+$16.44

Record

38%

1276-2064 (3340)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$113.34

Value

$100.31

PnL

-$13.03

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

Both legs:

Invested

$39.06

Value

$71.15

PnL

+$32.08

Record

34%

169-323 (492)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65.72

Value

$56.33

PnL

-$9.39

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$19.63

Value

$36.7

PnL

+$17.07

Record

37%

1155-1943 (3098)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.53

Value

$33.84

PnL

-$7.69

Record

49%

313-320 (633)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.53

Value

$31.37

PnL

-$2.16

Record

37%

1136-1917 (3053)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$37.8

Value

$30.1

PnL

-$7.7

Record

48%

1108-1208 (2316)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.24

Value

$10.57

PnL

-$1.67

Record

45%

140-171 (311)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.