Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Flyers vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares8,030

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Over1 trader

Total Value$138.4

Total Shares138

Combined PnL+$29.22

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 58¢	$2.4K	$1.7K	-$711.06	56% 3745-2909 (6654)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 58¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$425	56% 566-451 (1017)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 58¢	$343.36	$241.72	-$100.64	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 58¢	$290	$205	-$85	54% 1599-1379 (2978)
BO BoomLaLa	Overavg 78.9¢	$109.19	$138.4	+$29.22	34% 169-323 (492)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 31.5¢	$39.1	$50.85	+$11.75	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$37.7	$26.65	-$11.05	48% 372-398 (770)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$31.86	$22.14	-$9.72	53% 323-288 (611)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$8.7	$6.15	-$2.55	49% 1751-1796 (3547)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$2,425.97

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$711.06

Record

56%

3745-2909 (6654)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,450

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$425

Record

56%

566-451 (1017)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$343.36

Value

$241.72

PnL

-$100.64

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$290

Value

$205

PnL

-$85

Record

54%

1599-1379 (2978)

BoomLaLa

Over

Invested

$109.19

Value

$138.4

PnL

+$29.22

Record

34%

169-323 (492)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.1

Value

$50.85

PnL

+$11.75

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.7

Value

$26.65

PnL

-$11.05

Record

48%

372-398 (770)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.86

Value

$22.14

PnL

-$9.72

Record

53%

323-288 (611)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.7

Value

$6.15

PnL

-$2.55

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.