Spread: Flyers (-1.5)
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Flames (88%) · Flames at 74¢ · $888 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Flames
8
Flames 88%
$887.92
$34.19
69.1¢ → 74¢
+7% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlames at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Flames. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Flamesavg 69.4¢ | $375.22 | $400.34 | +$25.12 | 48% 70301-75984 (146285) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Flamesavg 68¢ | $162.72 | $168.84 | +$6.12 | 54% 19992-16872 (36864) |
 0xheavy888 | Flamesavg 69.5¢ | $139 | $139 | +$0 | 56% 8780-6967 (15747) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Flyersavg 30¢ | $94.2 | $95.77 | +$1.57 | 45% 14434-17741 (32175) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Flamesavg 68.5¢ | $44.5 | $46.48 | +$1.98 | 52% 27288-24794 (52082) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Flamesavg 70¢ | $23.82 | $21.48 | +$0.91 | 57% 24691-18283 (42974) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Flamesavg 71¢ | $14.06 | $12.53 | -$1.53 | 52% 47368-44608 (91976) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Flamesavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $3.48 | +$0.03 | 52% 9525-8636 (18161) |
Invested
$375.22
Value
$400.34
PnL
+$25.12
Record
48%
70301-75984 (146285)
Invested
$162.72
Value
$168.84
PnL
+$6.12
Record
54%
19992-16872 (36864)
0xheavy888Invested
$139
Value
$139
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
8780-6967 (15747)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$94.2
Value
$95.77
PnL
+$1.57
Record
45%
14434-17741 (32175)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$46.48
PnL
+$1.98
Record
52%
27288-24794 (52082)
Invested
$23.82
Value
$21.48
PnL
+$0.91
Record
57%
24691-18283 (42974)
Invested
$14.06
Value
$12.53
PnL
-$1.53
Record
52%
47368-44608 (91976)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.48
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
9525-8636 (18161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.